Boston Marathon Qualifying Times and Percentages

I have compiled a list of times that Amber and I have qualified for Boston(and Amber for Kona). While Amber has qualified for Boston and Kona at 54% and 50%, respectively, I have only qualified for Boston 35% of the time. Therefore, keeping everything else the same, I have only a 32% chance of qualifying for Kona. As such, I think instead of entering one Ironman, I should enter three Ironman triathlons to increase my odds of getting a spot and having an excuse to head back to the Big Island.

Below are our results since starting running marathons.

Amber Cullen-Ferreira
11/7/10 Manchester City Marathon 3:33:29 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
10/31/10 Marine Corps Marathon 3:14:27 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
10/09/10 Ironman World Championships(Kona) 3:47:14
7/25/10 Ironman Lake Placid 3:29:36 ----> BOSTON and KONA QUALIFIER
2/28/10 New Orleans Mardi Gras Marathon 3:03:51 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
11/1/09 Manchester City Marathon 3:33:14 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
10/18/09 Bay State Marathon 3:21:23 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
9/13/09 Ironman Wisconsin 3:53:32
12/13/08 Roxbury Marathon 4:06:14
11/2/08 Manchester City Marathon 3:48:30
5/25/08 Vermont City Marathon 3:20:29 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
4/21/08 Boston Marathon 3:47:55 (INJURED)
10/28/07 Cape Cod Marathon 3:58:42 (INJURED)
9/22/07 Odyssey Trail Marathon 6:08:11 (INJURED)
2/25/07 Hyannis Marathon 4:44:45 (INJURED)
10/15/06 Bay State Marathon 3:16:26 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER

8/16 or 50% of the marathons in which she has run qualified her for Boston. When you take out the three Ironman triathlons she has done it becomes 7/13 or 54%


Danny, Dan, Daniel Ferreira
10/31/10 Marine Corps Marathon 2:52:57 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
5/2/10 Cincinnati Flying Pig Marathon 3:02:21 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
4/17/10 Gansett Marathon(Exeter) 2:47:45 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
2/28/10 New Orleans Mardi Gras Marathon 2:51:44 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
11/1/09 Manchester City Marathon 3:33:18
10/18/09 Bay State Marathon 3:21:23
3/29/09 Ocean Drive Marathon 3:01:41 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
12/13/08 Roxbury Marathon 4:33:23
11/2/08 Manchester City Marathon 3:08:41 ----> BOSTON QUALIFIER
10/18/08 Breakers Marathon 3:25:30
10/5/08 Maine Marathon 3:19:24
5/25/08 Vermont City Marathon 3:26:05
4/21/08 Boston Marathon 3:34:44
1/13/08 Rock 'n' Roll Arizona Marathon 3:21:34
10/28/07 Cape Cod Marathon 3:20:48
9/22/07 Odyssey Trail Marathon 6:08:11
2/25/07 Hyannis Marathon 4:44:46

6/17 or 35% of the marathons that I have run allowed me to qualify for Boston.